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BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+8 DRAFTKINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card at Florida. DraftKings has some strong contests for us to acquire a lot of cash from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first location price and $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that match. I will attempt to get my 2nd seat this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those overly hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and then throw 50-100 entrances at the $25k prize, and then I will probably have a few shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a fantastic amount of play into money games.
With that said, let us get into a few plays I enjoy this week along with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of this week — Roosevelt Roberts — $9,500
I expect Roberts to be the much better fighter everywhere this fight goes. I think Gifford’s best shot at a win would be locking up a guillotine. Aside from that, I think we have a fairly safe win here using Roberts and that is what I am searching for. I need the safer wins in money and that I will be concerned about who’s going to score the greatest in GPPs. I think we can eliminate him at the GPPs at his price because when he puts up 90 DK points in a win then that won’t win $25k. It helps us triumph in money games though and I’d be surprised if he had a low scoring win here. I think he is good for 80-100 points here and I am totally okay with this in my cash lineup.
GPP drama of this week — Greg Hardy- $9,300
Hardy is the GPP drama of the week and he has the greatest ITD chances on the card at -222. This is a setup struggle for him to get a knockout and I believe this is quite likely going to take place in the very first round. That should place Hardy over 100 things and I am considering that. Hardy is going to be among my top plays of this week, but he’s GPP only for me. We can’t trust him sufficient for cash games, so that’s why I enjoy Roberts longer in that arrangement. I really do think Hardy can outscore Roberts even though they win, and he is $200 cheaper. That could knock Roberts off the top lineup and even with high ownership we could win that $25k with Hardy in our lineup as long as he receives the early KO. Hardy wins in round 1 is strung in -130 and that is too great for me to pass on in GPPs.
Underdog play of this week — Glover Teixeira — $7,900
Teixeira is no more the underdog on the gambling line (-120) however DraftKings salaries don’t change once they are released. We get Teixeira here for $400 cheaper than Cutelaba and he’s preferred to get the win. In addition, I think he could win in the 1st round with a score and submission over 90 points. That would give him a fantastic chance at being on the perfect lineup. I’ll be targeting both sides of the fight in GPPs because I don’t expect it to move all 3 rounds, but value on Teixeira is exactly what I like the most and we have to have”underdogs” in our DK lineups with the $50k salary cap. I think the obvious path to success for Glover is on the floor and that is precisely what I expect his game must be. I like him to find a entry win if he is able to land takedowns and he will be among my highest owned underdogs this week.
Fade of this week — Carla Esparza ($8,200)
I know people were expecting me to put Angela Hill as my fade at $9.4k. She is a strong fade too… However, I’m going with Esparza as my fade this week and that I have zero lineups such as her. In general, Esparza is a decent wrestler and we enjoy wrestlers in DraftKings. I simply don’t see wrestling being in her best interest against Jandiroba and that I believe she uses her wrestling at defense to try to keep this battle on the toes. Each of the danger is on the ground in this matchup and Carla has the better boxing of both. I think she could win a 30-27 striking decision but that won’t score highly, and I would guess it sets up about ~60 DK points. That isn’t going to cut it 8.2k so I simply don’t see how she ends up about the 25k lineup this week if she does win, and that is why she’s my fade of the week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle about the card and give my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link too. I’m 69-44 to get +224.83un (+$22,483) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
Read more here: http://www.jeffcoombsfund.org/an-overview-of-uk-online-sports-betting-sites/
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