BIG MARLEY’S UFC 231 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card with two title fights in Toronto, Canada. We’re back to using PPV sized competitions on DraftKings this week and there are a few solid GPPs to chase this week. The most important GPP is a $10 entry using $25,000 to 1st place. These are always my favourite contests to chase so I’ll be shooting some shots in that. Other than that, I will adhere to my 3-entry maximum & single entry GPPs. I’ll also be picking up H2Hs through the week and that I will get a fantastic quantity of play in games. With that said, here are a Couple of plays I enjoy this week in Addition to my fade of this week:
Money Game play of this week — Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($6,800)
JJ may be the simplest money game punt of all time at $6.8k. The lineup for Fight Goes To Decision is currently -195 and when we’re getting 5-rounds out of JJ using all the striking volume she puts out then we have a good floor there and it doesn’t matter if she loses or wins. At the cost she allows you to pay up for a few heavy favorites and when we could get 4 other areas to win with a ~40-point loss from JJ in our lineup then we’ll be sitting quite pretty in our money games this weekend.
GPP play of this week — Thiago Santos ($8,800)
Fight Does Not Go To Decision is currently lined at -495 with this fight. The most likely outcome is that someone in this struggle gets knocked out within 15-minutes. With that knockout likely comes at least one 10-point knock down. If that can be from the 1st round, then you are currently at 100-points even if it’s merely the 1st punch/kick of the evening. At $8.8k that’s more than sufficient to give you a chance at 1st place in a GPP. Thiago is your favorite in this struggle and Manuwa is 38-years old today, so that he can’t have much time at the game left. I think we role with the favorite here and throw him into our GPP lineups and then await the fireworks.
Underdog drama of this week — Matthew Lopez ($7,300)
Matthew Lopez is my underdog of this week due to his wrestling/grappling potential. In addition, I believe he’s a live underdog here. Lopez lost his last 2 fights by knockout, so that is what I’d worry about most with him Brad Katona is probably the better striker of the two but he’s never knocked anybody out, so I believe we have a good floor here at $7.3k even though this struggle does stay standing since I don’t watch Katona knocking Lopez out. I think Lopez is probably the better wrestler of both though and I believe he lands several takedowns in this battle and can win a choice with a wrestling-heavy game plan. Lopez lands 3.13 takedowns per 15-minutes at a 57 percent accuracy, and when he is becoming bogged up on the toes I am sure he is going to be going for even greater than this. At $7.3k I believe Lopez makes for a good play in most formats and that I think he gets a split decision win here since the road underdog.
Fade of the week — Katlyn Chookagian ($8,700)
I am fading a few fighters this week , but the person I never even considered using was Katlyn Chookagian. It is not that I do not think she can win, since she for certain can, and I think she does. However, I do not see her paying off an $8.7k DK salary with a win. I believe we’d require a finish from her in this struggle to get 10x that salary and I think that is quite unlikely to happen. Or, she will want FightMetric to rely all her screams as significant strikes. The maximum Chookagian has ever scored in a UFC fight up to now in her profession is 83 DK points which was against Irene Aldana who sets a much higher rate than Jessica Eye does. Even though she could get 83-points here afterward still wouldn’t be sufficient here to place her in the winning lineup at her $8.7k price tag. I think if you are making 20 or less lineups that Saturday you can safely fade Chookagian and when she’s a win it should not hurt much.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown each struggle on the card and also give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my select predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
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