BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+8 DRAFTKINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we have a 13-fight card at Florida. DraftKings has some strong contests for us to win a lot of cash from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier only competition for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first place cost and that $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 admissions that match. I will attempt to receive my 2nd seat this week if possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw 50-100 entries at the $25k prize, then I will likely take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to get a fantastic amount of play into cash games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of this week — Roosevelt Roberts — $9,500
I expect Roberts to be the much better fighter anywhere this battle goes. I believe Gifford’s best shot at a win will be gearing up a guillotine. Other than that, I think we’ve got a fairly safe win here using Roberts and that is what I am looking for. I want the wins that are safer in money and I can worry about who is going to score the greatest in GPPs. I believe we could eliminate him in the GPPs at his cost because when he puts up 90 DK points in a win then won’t win $25k. It helps us win in money games though and I would be amazed if he had a low scoring win . I believe he’s good for 80-100 points here and I’m totally ok with this in my money lineup.
GPP drama of the week — Greg Hardy- $9,300
Hardy is the GPP drama of this week and he has the highest ITD chances on the card at -222. This is a set up fight for him to get a knockout and I think that is most likely going to happen in the very first round. That should place Hardy over 100 points and I am considering that. Hardy will be among my best plays of the week, but he is GPP just for me personally. We can not trust him enough for cash games, so that’s why I like Roberts more in that format. I do think Hardy can outscore Roberts though if they both win, and he’s $200 cheaper. That could knock Roberts off the top lineup and even with high ownership we can win that $25k with Hardy in our lineup so long as he gets the first KO. Hardy wins in round 1 is strung in -130 and that is too great for me to pass on in GPPs.
Underdog play of this week — Glover Teixeira — $7,900
Teixeira is no more the underdog on the betting line (-120) but DraftKings salaries don’t change as soon as they are released. We receive Teixeira here for $400 less costly than Cutelaba and he is favored to get the win. In addition, I think he can win in the 1st round with a submission and score above 90 points. That would give him a fantastic chance at being to the perfect lineup. I’ll be targeting both sides of this fight in GPPs since I do not expect it to go all 3 rounds, but value on Teixeira is what I like the most and we have to own”underdogs” in our DK lineups with the $50k salary cap. I believe that the clear path to success for Glover is to the floor and that’s what I expect his game plan to be. I enjoy him to get a submission win if he can land takedowns and he’ll be among my highest owned underdogs this week.
Fade of this week — Carla Esparza ($8,200)
I understand people were expecting me to place Angela Hill as my fade at $9.4k. She’s a strong fade too… But I am going with Esparza as my fade this week and that I will have zero lineups such as her. In general, Esparza is a good wrestler and we enjoy wrestlers in DraftKings. I simply don’t see wrestling in her best interest against Jandiroba and that I think she uses her wrestling at defense to attempt and keep this battle on the feet. Each of the danger is on the ground in this matchup and Carla gets the better boxing of the two. I believe she could win a 30-27 striking decision but that won’t score highly, and I would guess it puts up about ~60 DK points. That isn’t going to reduce it at $8.2k so that I just don’t see how she ends up about the $25k lineup this week even if she does win, and that’s why she’s my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle on the card and give my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link as well. I’m 69-44 for +224.83un (+$22,483) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

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