UFC on FOX 27 Odds: Souza vs. Brunson 2 Prediction

The following UFC event — UFC on Fox 27 — goes down this Saturday (Jan. 27th) and comes with a main-event tilt between Ronaldo”Jacare” Souza and Derek Brunson. This is the second time these two middleweights will face off, with Souza winning via knockout in their first go around in 2012. But time is a funny thing, and six years later, it’s Brunson riding the wave of momentum while Souza regroups after a catastrophic loss that cost him a shot in the UFC middleweight title.
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Even though this isn’t the tastiest main course the UFC has ever served, it’s a captivating contrast in styles, and every MMA event, whatever the hype, produces possible gambling opportunities. Where’s the wise money going for Souza vs Brunson 2?
Stay tuned for a more comprehensive look at the card at Best Bets for UFC on Fox 27 that Thursday.
Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (-160) vs. Derek Brunson (+135)
Jacare Souza fighting in Strikeforce.
Jacare Souza combating in Strikeforce. Photo from LowLight (YouTube) [CC License].
This is your traditional battle of fashions. Ronaldo Souza (24-5, 17 submissions) is one of the best jiu-jitsu practitioners to ever step foot into a UFC Octagon while Derek Brunson (18-5, 10 KOs) loves to put people to sleep with his strong fists.
The first time these two combatants met was back in 2012 under the aged Strikeforce bannerand it was actually Souza who was able to put Brunson to sleep with a quick right hook, just one of three career knockouts for the Brazilian.
Via GIPHY
Six years later, Brunson, a former Division II All-American wrestler (and cheerleader!) , has a chance for revenge.
His opponent is among the most feared grapplers on the planet and has stopped 58-percent of his own fights via entry. As he showed in the first matchup, he is not too shabby in casting leather either. He lands a decent 2.28 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 44.1-percent.
Souza suffered a devastating loss to Robert Whittaker through head kick at his last struggle (April 2017), but he’s also won 10 of his last 12 and has never lost back-to-back fights in his career. A win on Saturday would place Souza’s title back to middleweight title film, and time is of the essence for its 38-year-old.
In 34, Derek Brunson’s own career clock is getting late. He rebounded from back-to-back losses to Whittaker and Anderson Silva with KO wins over Dan Kelly (June 2017) and Lyoto Machida (October 2017), increasing up the middleweight rankings in the process. Knocking guys out isn’t something new to the hard-hitting middleweight, who averages 3.2 significant strikes per minute with a striking accuracy of 32.1-percent. He’s won 61-percent of his own fights via KO and has produced knockouts in each of the past six victories. Interestingly, he has never been submitted in his professional career.
The contrasting styles make this a tremendously intriguing fight for MMA purists. Normally, it is smart to lean towards the high-level grappler over the energy puncher, but Souza’s age coupled with his very last performance suggest a possible Brunson upset. Search for the American to use his speed, power, and five-inch achieve advantage (77??? vs 72???) to try to end things early, while using his wrestling to keep the fight standing.
Right now, Brunson is recorded at +135 on MyBookie.ag. It is a good value bet worth taking now.

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